Adapt or go Bust: What do we need to do to survive Climate Change?
Adapt or go Bust: What do we need to do to survive Climate Change?
Understanding Adaptation, the second half of the plan to save humankind.
Welcome to the 9th issue of Climate Matters. Before we begin, I’d like to thank you for not making me write these for *free*. Many of you have contributed, some rather generously, to my reporting fund so I can continue putting in my time and efforts into running this publication. And keep it free for all to read. Reader supported, independent journalism is here to stay and accept my deepest gratitude for allowing me to do this important work.
*UPDATE:* A day after I sent this newsletter out, a new record has been set.
'Highest temperature on Earth' as Death Valley, US hits 54.4C What could be the highest temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth - 130F (54.4C) - may have been reached in Death Valley National Park, California. - Read more at BBC
108 years ago this week, a New Zealand paper printed this tiny article, probably as a space filler. The article[1] titled “Coal consumption affecting climate” ended with this line below -
The effect may be considerable in a few centuries.
*Few centuries*
What was supposed to be a considerable effect in a few centuries, turned out to be a catastrophe in exactly a century. Despite the cautionary warning from 108 years ago, 40% of our world’s energy still comes from burning coal[2], global surface temperature has increased by 1.2°C and strangely, we have a #Firenado at hand as I write this.
2020 has been an absolute nightmare when it comes to climate change impacts. I thought 2019 was bad but it pales in comparison to the hell that this year has been. I mean we’ve had biblical locust plagues that refuse to die, apocalyptic flooding across all the continents except Antarctica, heatwaves that leave blisters on hands and glaciers falling off of mountains, even aberrations like firenado, derecho in just over half a year. I would say 2020 has got no chill but it is simply climate change compounding multiple crises, reminding us IT IS TIME TO ADAPT.
Understanding Adaptation:
The planet’s climate has always been changing and humans or whatever species that survived kept on evolving and adapting to the new environment. Usually this process of evolution drags over thousands of years, giving life forms time to adapt to the change or go extinct. What’s happening in the case of climate crisis though, is that humans catalysed the physical environment to change so rapidly that species are simply unable to match the speed of changing climate— not only in terms of evolving to exist in future, but simply adapting to exist in the present. And this very much includes us humans!
Life as we know it is set to disappear for now. This may seem like an alarmist statement, but allow me prove this to you with evidence. Read on.
Residents and travellers as they stand on the remains of a flood damaged road alongside the River Alaknanda in Chamoli district in the northern Indian state of Uttarakhand on June 18, 2013. ©AFP Photo/Indian Army
Mounting evidence of accelerating climate crisis and severe impacts
In the last one year, we’ve made some rather significant leaps in understanding the climate science to predict the extent of damage done to our atmosphere and ecosystem. Scientists figured the climate is much more sensitive to carbon dioxide in the atmosphere[3] than we earlier thought. Meanwhile, the last 12 months — June 2019 to July 2020 — tied to be the hottest 12 months[4] in recorded history with August 2015-September 2016 period. May 2020 tied with May 2016 as the warmest May on record. July 2020 was the hottest July on record for Northern Hemisphere and second hottest world over.
As you can see in the image below from World Meteorological Organisation[5], most of the world recorded above average temperatures than expected in July, corroborating the conclusion that the planet is indeed warming drastically.
So what are the impacts if the planet warms this drastically?
Two of the most immediate and perceptible impacts of a rapidly warming planet are extreme heat and extreme rainfall. We saw both of these in the last few months.
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Extreme Heat Events:
In the last month, both the Middle East and the Arctic experienced and continue to experience record-breaking heat. Temperatures reached as high as 53°C in an Iraqi city and a Siberian town saw a record-breaking 38°C, while most of Europe and US is still reeling under a persistent heatwave. And it seem like the Arctic is a lost cause at this point.
How is this heat manifesting then? Glaciers are melting off mountains unable to withstand the heat[5], leading to mass evacuation[6]. Door handles are getting so hot they’re leaving blisters on hand[7] and power grids are collapsing unable to deal with the demand [8] [9]. In a bizarre development, Qatar air-conditioned its outdoors last year[10] because it was too damn hot and I’m sure it is doing the same this year as well.
We already have several places recording several days where it is too hot for humans to function outdoors or indoors. And in future, it is predicted summers will be too hot for humans. However, if you’ve ever experienced 45+°C days, you know what that kind of heat can do to you and prolonged exposure to such temperatures would kill us is a no-brainer. And even if you are privileged enough to not have to slog outdoors, being cooped up in an air-conditioned cage for hours together isn’t going to be fun in anyway and not to forget the heat makes everyone irritable and unproductive!
According to latest Climate Risk Report[11] by McKinsey Global Institute, Asia could suffer losses of upto $4.7 trillion a year in GDP by 2050 as a result of global heating impacting its labor force, unless adequate measures are taken.
So what are going to do about this? Swelter in heat and drop dead like flies? Air condition all our outdoors? Stop working through summers and go underground to do whatever is the opposite of hibernate?
Extreme flooding events:
One of the most known and visible impacts of global warming is that as more water evaporates due to rising temperatures, more of it comes down as intense precipitation. More rain in less time.
This monsoon, Mumbai has recorded 64 per cent of its monthly quota of rain in the first five days of August. Colaba set a record with the highest rainfall in a single day in 46 years– 331.8mm rainfall in the last 24 hours. And predictably, the maximum city came to a standstill and Spirit of Mumbai had to once again unwillingly show up to compensate for years of neglect and apathy in urban planning and flood risk management.
Assam and Bihar went through yet another season of horrible monsoon flooding, once again, betrayed by lack of innovative interventions to adapt to recurrent flooding. Kerala[13] and Uttarakhand[14] both have recorded heavy rainfall triggering landslides and flash floods. Shocking videos from Dehradun[15] and Jaipur[16] did the rounds on social media showing roads turned into rivers. Overall, once again, monsoon has left several dead and several more displaced. Here’s the kicker, Indian monsoon so far is deficit and yet we have rampant flooding.
It’s not just India. Nepal, China, Japan, North Korea, South Sudan, United Kingdom, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Yemen, France, Italy, Mexico, Spain, Panama — you get the drift, half the world maybe! — have seen extreme rainfall and related disasters. Floodlist keeps a track of all flooding related disasters and you can see for yourself how bad 2020 flooding has been.
Our cities are simply not designed to withstand this kind of rainfall. Our drainage systems are non-existent. We encroached upon flood plains rampantly and built over natural drainage paths without a worry. We denuded the plains and mountains, stripped them of forests that could hold the mud together and now we have incessant landslides and flashfloods. As the rainfall severity intensifies due to climate change and our houses, fields, cities and countries get flooded while people get killed and infrastructure gets destroyed, what are we going to do?
Long term climate hazards:
Apart from these immediate impacts, we also have long term concerns that need to be addressed such as groundwater recharge as well as fresh water availability for drinking, irrigation and domestic use. Food security, as warming temperatures makes crop-growing regions unable to meet food production demands. Pest control as more regions become warm and conducive to infestation such as the recent locus attacks. Urban and rural planning to accommodate for heat, flood risks and storm surges. Transforming the energy grid to deal with recurrent heat and flooding interruptions etc etc.
Like it or not, extreme heat and extreme flooding are part of our future now. Because of the lifetime of CO2, even if we stop emissions right now, we’ll still continue to see warming and associated climate hazards for decades if not centuries. And Asia is poised to be worst hit, going by the climate impacts we’ve already seen and what’s predicted.
Meaning, we need to adapt, quickly and innovatively.
Lost opportunities and new strategies:
A decade ago, if we had got our climate action sorted, we wouldn’t have had the need to adapt today. But this was something scientists have been telling for years and our leaders didn’t listen, that climate change will come on swift wings and catch us unguarded. For years, lack of terrible & visible climate hazards allowed governments and leaders to remain complacent and not consider climate crisis as the existential threat that it is. Today, the climate crisis has arrived on swift wings and is battering us left, right and centre. As expected, the governments are about as prepared as a clueless child inheriting this mad world, scrambling to respond to simultaneous crises. The dire future we were being warned about by scientists in the past is already here, much earlier than they expected, and we are staring into the disaster with Bambi eyes as if no one told us about this impending crisis.
How exactly can we respond today if one third of a country is underwater after a monsoon spell? One third of Bangladesh is underwater[17]! Netherlands, one the flattest countries with one third of its land below sea level has a successful solution[18] in place to contain and respond to flooding for now. But, Bangladesh is 3.5 times as large as Netherlands, with almost 10 times more population and only 30% its GDP. So what do we do as sea levels continue to rise and rainfall continues to be extreme? Fly all Bangladeshis on a magic carpet to live in Siberia? Clearly, there’s a limit to adaptation. This is where mitigation comes into picture.
Climate Action = Mitigation + Adaptation.
And we need this RIGHT NOW!
This was third of the 3-part series on climate action. First was on the difference between Sustainability and Climate Action, second on Mitigation. And the third, this one, on Adaptation.
Now you know what we need to do to stop and survive climate change. The solutions are varied depending on your geographical location, political landscape, elected leaders and civil society engagement with climate change. Since, there is no silver bullet or an easy to-do task list to stop climate change in its tracks, it falls on individuals and communities to find solutions that works best for them, given their circumstances. Climate crisis is something we need to live with for the foreseeable future and involves lifelong activism. And so, using this high-level understanding, you can investigate and think where your skills and time are best invested to get adequate climate action. Yes?
Don’t forget to share this post with your friends and family, we need all hands on deck!
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We humans should open our eyes ,and should treat our nature as it should be treated 🌈
This puts so much in perspective. Thank you!