Five years since historic Paris Agreement, how are we doing?
Five years since historic Paris Agreement, how are we doing?
Very badly, as per the report card. But hold on, there's some good news too!
Welcome to the 15th issue of Climate Matters, a longish analysis today on five years of the world’s first proper climate agreement!
First things first, sorry for going MIA for the last few weeks. I’ve had a laptop emergency that completely messed up my work schedule for the whole of last month. I’ve been running pillar to post trying to meet deadlines, work on the documentary, edit photos for an assignment and all without a laptop. Finally my woes seems to have come to a temporary halt, but not without leaving a big hole in my pocket in a year where the pandemic struck and when I decided not to do any commercial work (#FML). But, phew! Glad that nightmare has ended. You can expect regular posts again.
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Last Saturday marked five years of historic adoption of Paris Agreement. On December 12, 2015, after 20 years of bickering over what needs to be done to save the world from the worst impacts of global warming, global leaders collectively and miraculously agreed to limit temperature rise to 2°C by 2100 and if possible, even to 1.5°C. For having achieved this consensus after years of disagreements and negotiations, attendees were literally in tears, understandably. It seemed like humanity was ready to rise up to the challenge and there was hope for future.
Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon (second left); Christiana Figueres (left), Executive Secretary of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC); Laurent Fabius (second right), Minister for Foreign Affairs of France and President of the UN Climate Change Conference in Paris (COP21) and François Hollande (right), President of France celebrate after the historic adoption of Paris Agreement on climate change. Credit: UN Photo/Mark Garten
Tears, cheers and selfies as climate pact sealed in Paris. There were a mix of reactions in Paris after the historic climate change deal was announced on Saturday.
They erupted into cheers, broke into tears and took selfies after the gavel came down on the historic climate deal in Paris. Around 2,000 people -- ministers, negotiators and activists -- in the plenary hall at Le Bourget, the airport sub-town on the outskirts of Paris, took to their feet in a joyous uprising.
The cheering lasted for three minutes after which French foreign minister Laurent Fabius, who presided over 13 days of gruelling talks, picked up the green leaf-shaped gavel and brought it down again.
“It may be a small gavel but it can do big things,” he said, drawing more cheers.
France’s iconic landmark the Eiffel tower was lit beyond midnight to mark Paris embedding its name in climate history. But many outside Le Bourget were not aware that nearly 200 nations had signed a commitment to cut emissions and thus slow down global warming. They will wait for the morning newspapers to tell them how the world got together at their place to try and save the planet. — as reported by Hindustan Times after the historic deal.
By all means, it was a historic coming together of countries. Especially so, considering the first COP was organised in 1995 and it took 20 more years to reach a solid consensus on the threat of global warming and a reasonable plan for future. The long drawn out negotiation and the hard won gain is nicely detailed in this Guardian report. Quite possibly, many of you reading this newsletter today, including me, weren’t really aware of or were bothered much about the world’s first Climate Agreement then. Five years later, quite possibly none of us have the luxury of being blissfully unaware anymore?
Five years after the so-called historic Paris Agreement, how did we do?
Dear Reader, I wish I had better news but we are doing very badly. That’s exactly what the United Nations Emissions Gap 2020 report that was released a week before the five year anniversary spells out in detail for us. Instead of a straightforward and boring rehash of the report, let me list out three reasons to be rightfully harrowed by the stocktaking and three reasons to be cautiously optimistic about future. Let’s begin!
Three reasons to be harrowed:
1. We’re nearly not doing enough to stop climate change.
As per the UN, the world reached 1°C warming in 2017 compared to pre-industrial levels(1850-1900). And in 2020, we’ve hit 1.2°C warming[*], despite the slight dip (7%) in carbon emissions due to coronavirus[*]. That’s an astounding rise in mean surface temperature in mere three years. It also shows us the impossible challenge we have ahead of us if we want to limit warming to 1.5°C by 2100. According to the latest Emissions Gap report, we are firmly on track to seeing 3°C rise by 2100. This was assessed based on individual countries’ current Nationally Determined Contributions(NDC) for carbon emission reduction.
“Current NDCs remain seriously inadequate to achieve the climate goals of the Paris Agreement and would lead to a temperature increase of at least 3°C by the end of the century.
A dramatic strengthening of ambition is needed if the Paris Agreement goals are to be achieved. In line with the findings of previous editions of the Emissions Gap Report, countries must collectively increase their NDC ambitions threefold to get on track to a 2°C goal and more than fivefold to get on track to the 1.5°C goal”, the report found.
2. The rich countries’ best case scenario targets are already the worst for poor and developing countries.
2020 was a freakshow that we’ll never forget, especially for poor countries. To do a quick recap, this was the year that started with apocalyptic locust plagues[*] that enveloped vast swathes of eastern Africa, Arabian Peninsula and the Indian subcontinent, severely threatening food and economic security in these places. This was immediately followed by extreme rainfall, flooding, cyclones and typhoons on a scale and frequency never seen before. Flooding is the one of the worst in terms of economic impact because of its high potential for infrastructure, agricultural and property destruction. Countries everywhere around the world faced unprecedented challenges when it came to unseasonal flooding that was way beyond what our infrastructure could handle. Additionally, rapid formation as well as intensification of hurricane/cyclone/typhoons in the oceans battered our lands relentlessly. This dealt a particularly hard blow to the poor and developing countries where the vulnerable not only had to deal with the severe economic fallout of the pandemic but also the long-lasting impacts of extreme weather events, trapping millions in a cycle of poverty. Meanwhile, the Arctic warmed and burned at an unprecedented rate, along with forests in Amazon, Pantanal, America, Middle East and Australia. The ice had a record melt season too. It is no surprise then that 2020 is on track to becoming the hottest on record[*].
The takeaway from this is that a majority of the world is suffering immensely already at mere 1.2°C warming. Poor nations do not have the capacity to weather this perfect storm of recurring extreme weather events, rampant inequality, and the inadequate technological and economic capacity to respond to the compounding crises. It is reasonable to say climate impacts escalate exponentially rather than linearly with every 0.1 degree rise in temperature. Can you then imagine how the world would be at 1.5°C? Can you imagine how it would be at 2°C?
The rich nations are patting their backs for announcing emissions cuts that will still take us to 2°C warming at the very best! But this is already a death knell for the poor countries. While acknowledging that 1.5°C is probably the best case scenario in terms of what’s possible technologically, economically and socially, it is equally important to understand the vulnerable nations will suffer catastrophically even in this most optimistic scenario. What’s needed then is either even more ambitious emission reduction targets from rich nations or ample adaptation and financial support to vulnerable nations (as a right and not as a charity or loan) or both. This is essentially what is enshrined in the Paris Agreement, but its actualisation is another matter altogether.
3. India is being shortsighted and bullish for selfish reasons on climate ambition.
Now this one is a bit personal. After announcing how badly we did in terms of reaching Paris goals, the UN also organised a Climate Ambition Summit [full event updates here] so countries could strengthen and submit their new emission reduction targets. This lead to concrete plans and new pledges from 75 countries, businesses, sectors, cities bringing Paris Agreement goals a step closer, as per the UN press release[*].
India, however, did not scale up its climate ambition, reiterating the tired old trope of meeting our Paris Agreement targets[*]. Our main emission reduction strategy seems to be increasing renewable energy capacity and showing growth in forest cover which counts for negative emissions. Both these plans have significant problems. With RE, we’re expanding solar parks at a record pace but we’re not weaning ourselves off coal.
Not only is coal not on its way out, but it is also seen as part of India’s future, as evident from a decision the government took last June: For the first time ever, it has decided to open 41 coal blocks for commercial mining to the private sector. This is aimed at addressing India’s excessive reliance on imported coal (30 per cent). In parallel, India plans to install an additional 60 MW of thermal power, which is surprising, considering that today renewable energy is cheaper than coal. - from an Indian Express article titled If India has to meet climate change mitigation targets, it needs to take decisive action now
India also decided to add large hydro to its RE capacity, but large hydros do cause massive environmental damage and cause mass displacement without enough gains to justify their existence. With increasing forest cover, it is a clever accounting trick rather than actual protection of forests. As per our own rules, India now considers commercial plantations as part of compensatory afforestation also as green cover, which do not have the carbon mitigating potential of actual regenerated or protected forests[*].
All this is bad news for us because India is one of the most vulnerable countries to climate impacts[*]. It is in our best interests to have a carbon neutral goal and ambitious biodiversity protection measures in place that could buffer us from the worst of climate change. And so, it is disappointing to see that our leaders have no capacity for vision and ambition that puts us on a path to sustainable development without sacrificing future of the planet and our own people.
***
While there is a lot to be disappointed about the current state of affairs, it is important to find the silver livings in a horrible year that shook our society to the core. And so, here goes.
Three reasons to be hopeful:
1. Race to #NetZero is gaining steam
The growing number of countries committing to net-zero emissions goals by midcentury is the most significant climate policy development of 2020. To remain feasible and credible, these commitments must be urgently translated into strong near-term policies and action and reflected in NDCs. At the time of report completion, 126 countries covering 51 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions had adopted, announced or were considering netzero goals. If the United States of America adopts a net-zero target by 2050, as suggested in the Biden-Harris climate plan, the share would increase to 63 per cent. - as per UN Emissions Gap Report 2020
For me, this was easily the best development in 2020 when it comes to aligning to Paris Agreement goals. From countries to big corporates, the number of NetZero pledges that came about this year signal a massive shift in adoption of decarbonisation goals. While implementation challenges still remain, for now, we must celebrate this welcome development.
2. The massive shift in public perception on both the threat and solutions to climate change
I mean, can you imagine sitting around a dinner table and saying something about Paris Agreement and you won’t be met with blank stares anymore?!
Sure, they may not all get what it is but there’s a good chance they’ll know what it is about! From being an obscure conference and niche circle staple, climate change has become a global phenomenon today and the interminable jargon has miraculously entered public sphere. And not stopping at that, the public understanding is improving manifold on the role of fossil fuel companies and lobbies, governments and corporates, and finally the super rich in creating the crisis. Th first step in solving a problem is understanding the problem and I think we’ve taken great strides in the last few months in deconstructing this very complex, interconnected mess to get to the root of who or what’s causing climate crisis.
If you’re new to this, this post should help - Understanding Global Emissions (& the inherent inequality) in Seven Charts
3. Smashing the inequality is not a fringe idea anymore!
I think this is what I’m most hopeful about. Inequality is at the heart of climate change and in solving this planetary crisis, we may have a shot at eradicating the scourge that is needless poverty in today’s world of much abundance.
The extractive capitalistic system that allowed billionaires to exist and continue to plunder a lion’s share of resources just because they have access to it while billions struggle in poverty was an obscene idea already. But finally, there’s growing resistance in maintaining this inequality and taxing the rich is once again gaining steam. The cherry on top is the much-awaited interrogation of the absolute scam that is trickle down economics. This years Emission Gap Report integrated the Oxfam’s Carbon Inequality report and the spotlight is finally on the rich who have an outsized influence on both emissions and policies.
Global rich must cut their carbon footprint 97% to stave off climate change, UN says. If there is a silver lining in these figures, it may be the possibility of tackling both climate disruption and economic inequality in one fell swoop. - Read this illuminating article with great infographics on CBS to know more.
(imagine me dancing wildly right about now that the rich do not get a free pass to pollute anymore)
The chicken and egg problem: Does the solution come first or the intention?
Paris Agreement pathways heavily rely on technology that doesn’t exist yet. Net Zero pledges that became the highlight of this year also make these grand claims based on solutions and technology that don’t exist yet. So should we take them seriously at all?
Initially, I was very bothered by the voluntary and non-legal binding nature of the accord but today I think that was an alright decision. The way I see it, Paris Agreement is merely the intention. The implementation will follow if we, everyone including governments to corporates to civil society, take this seriously enough. It is up to us now to make sure Paris Agreement doesn’t fail like the previous Kyoto Protocol did. At that point, there was no thriving global civil movement demanding climate action. But today we do. There’s an immense amount of public pressure and a monumental shift in perception, in favor of a low carbon future that’s forcing even unwilling countries like Russia and Brazil to begin considering netzero goals.
The civil society now needs to both hold the government accountable so it meets the Paris targets and also hold itself accountable to shift our culture away from consumerism and extractive capitalism in order to secure the future of the next generation.
Five years since Paris Agreement, and as a newly minted Climate Activist, so how do I feel about this?
Optimistic.
Because we literally have no other choice. Without hope, there is no action. And it is not all that impossible to hold hope, anger and disappointment together. Without hope, anger and disappointment will lead us to a fatalistic worldview. With hope, on the other hand, that despair can be the fuel that will lead us to meaningful action.
We could consider we are at an inflection point in 2020. The last 30 years have been futile in a sense. Since the first COP meeting in 1990, global emissions rose by 60%. Since signing the Paris Agreement, the emissions continued to rise showing no sign of peaking. However, seeing the major shifts in the last few months, the next 30 years could be our best shot at redemption. NetZero by 2050 could be within reach. And yet, the risk that we would simply stall more is also very real.
What gives me hope then? Something that Lenin said—
“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.”
̶ Vladimir Lenin
Seeing the sudden and significant progress made in the last few months, the next year could/should be full of such weeks where decades happen. I’m optimistic that we may have hit critical mass and that change is coming. There’s a reason hope springs eternal and that blind faith may very well be our saving grace.
So, what do you think about all this? How are you feeling about the five year anniversary of the Paris Agreement? Comment and discuss.
Additional Reading:
The Paris Deal at 5. Is it Working?
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