The Youth will not save us from Climate Crisis!
The Youth will not save us from Climate Crisis!
Not that they won't. They simply can't. Hear me out.
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Photo by Callum Shaw on Unsplash
There’s this pervasive belief that the youth— the brave, idealistic, aware and concerned new generation will save us from climate crisis. Ever since Greta Thunberg’s meteoric rise and inspired leadership that not only helped the world take notice of climate crisis but also sparked the global youth climate movement, many seem to be under the illusion that youth will now save us from this crisis.
I had an informal poll on my Instagram channel yesterday and a whopping 70% believed the youth will be our saviour. I’ve also been talking to some people working in the field of climate change, and they also share this belief that the youth will come to our rescue.
I’ll not lie to you reader, I’ve been mad ever since.
“This is all wrong. I shouldn't be up here. I should be back in school on the other side of the ocean. Yet you all come to us young people for hope. How dare you!”
said Greta Thunberg at U.N. Climate Action Summit in 2019. And I don’t think there’s anything more that explains the futility of this line of thought than these sharp words from the world’s most famous youth climate activist. I’m sure you must have already listened to her emotional yet crystal clear reprimanding at the UN summit last year.
The evidence has been steadily stacking up and the last few months have been sounding the alarm bells louder than ever. In 2018, we thought we had about 12 years to avert the crisis with minimum damage. By the time Greta gave this speech last year, that deadline had reduced to about 8 and half years because we feverishly burned through the remaining carbon budget. Today, almost another year later, we have less than 8 years to course correct. And yet, nature has already been playing havoc, shocking scientists by exhibiting disastrous consequences that weren’t predicted to appear for couple of years now. Climate models were running red hot all through last year, baffling scientists worldwide. And then, just last week, scientists may have figured out why these events that weren’t supposed to happen yet are already happening.
Climate Sensitivity got a brand new, scary update!
Climate Sensitivity is a complex modelling exercise to understand and predict how the earth’s climate will respond to doubling of carbon dioxide (from pre-industrial levels) concentration in the atmosphere. Meaning, scientists try to estimate what will happen to the earth’s systems when CO2 concentration reaches 560 parts per million(ppm). (Currently we are at 416ppm and pre-industrial levels were 280ppm.)
Scientists use this to give us a range of temperature rise when CO2 doubles. Until last week, we were using a 1979 report that estimated the world will likely see a temperature rise of anything between 1.5°C to 4.5°C each time the carbon dioxide concentration doubles. This sensitivity range informs the IPCC predictions and targets, and the Paris Agreement as well where the world collectively decided on country-level climate pledges to keep the global temperature rise below 1.5°C by the year 2100.
However, this new study led by team of 25 scientists narrowed that range to 2.3°C to 4.5°C. Meaning, if the carbon dioxide concentration doubles in the atmosphere, there’s less than 5% chance that we will see a global temperature rise below 2.3°C. Fun fact, at our current rate, we’re set to reach CO2 doubling in the atmosphere by 2080. And there’s goes our hopeful Paris Agreement target right out the window!
But, what does this new gobbledygook study mean for us?
That we’ve been underestimating how sensitive earth’s climate is to increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide, and that our current climate pledges are nearly not enough to limit the global temperature rise to 1.5°C.
Remember that 12 or 8 years to course correct deadline? Yeah, even that’s not remotely valid anymore. Dr. Kate Marvel, one of the contributing authors, puts it best here -
“Honestly, we have, like, negative 30 years to save the planet”
Okay if you are really, really desperate for a sliver of good news right now, this new study also rules out the higher end worst case scenarios. There is very little chance that we’ll see a warming of over 4.5°C. (But, you should also know that during the drastically different Ice Age, global temperatures were just about 5°C cooler than current global temperatures. So a 4.5°C world would still be drastically hot & also uninhabitable)
Does all this mean we’re done for?
No, what this means is that we need stronger climate pledges, bolder climate ambitions so we do not reach CO2 doubling in the atmosphere and that we need to absolutely #keepItInTheGround. There can be no justification for burning fossil fuels anymore, because we are literally burning away our future.
And this is exactly why the youth can’t save us from Climate Crisis.
Because they are neither the ones in power today nor do we have that kind of time. The only thing the youth can do for us is hold up a mirror and demand that we adults be accountable today and not squander away their future.
If you missed the outrageous drama that played out on twitter last week, Prakash Javadekar, our Minister for Environment tried to shut down youth climate groups by threatening them with terrorism charges, for merely facilitating sending objection emails to him over his proposed changes to Environmental Impact Assessment laws. I’m not even joking about the absurdity or the audacity of this shameful flexing of power. Thankfully, social media came to the rescue of these young students and their websites have been restored and allegations withdrawn. How easily the government tried to intimidate the youth groups with terrorism allegations should be our call to wake up to support the youth with all our might and listen to their very valid demands. (As of this morning, the websites seem to be down again.)
These young people are doing us a great service by being our moral compass and yet, we’re doing them a grave disservice by burdening them with the fight for a habitable future, at an age where the worst they should be dealing with is the heartbreak of young romance.
When we have the luxury of time, it is reasonable to expect that next generation’s thinking will affect a change as they enter the workforce and positions of power, and bring a generational shift in cultures and attitudes. But in case of climate crisis, it is simply absolving of responsibility to think the youth will save us. The youth will inherit a really fucked up world, about which they can do little because, remember, this is a planetary crisis unraveling over ridiculously short timelines? Greta Thunberg herself said the widely popular global school strikes have achieved nothing, because greenhouse gas emissions rose by 4% since 2015, despite the young taking to the streets.
And so, it squarely falls onto us— the prospective and current— mothers, fathers, grandmas, grandpas, aunts, uncles, godmothers, godfathers and all concerned, to demand bolder climate goals and save the next generation from climate crisis.
It’s not the other way around.
JUST. NO.
Now I know all of this may seem like preaching to the choir, because let’s face it, if you signed up to receive these horrible climate updates, then you are already pretty damn concerned. But, like I said before, I will help you make sense of this planetary crisis. Through these weekly reminders I am just hoping that we will all collectively realise by how much we need to amp up our climate activism, so we know what to demand from our elected leaders and whom to support in this fight, and how.
Two articles you must read this week -
The Great Climate Migration Has Begun - New York Times published this massive piece on how hot the world is going to get and how it will drive a major migration. A lot of people are losing their minds over this stunning data visualisation and dire predictions. But this our reality, so better get acquainted with it.
‘Excessive’ rains hit millions across Asia - Much of Asia has been reeling under monstrous floods and torrential rainfall, made much worse by climate change. In future, this will be all too normal and be the cause of yet another monumental migration and untold suffering.
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