All eyes on the crucial Climate Election!
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Welcome to the 14th issue of Climate Matters, a short analysis today on a decisive event playing out in America right now!
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US goes to polls on in two days, on November 3rd, and nothing better explains the global nature of climate crisis than this significant event. This is single handedly one of the most important elections this decade. I know these words are used quite often for every threat that seems to dominate our collective conscious at different periods of our history, but we really really never had to face an unprecedented, human-created, planetary crisis like this yet. But don’t take my word for it, let me explain to you why this is a decisive moment in our fight for a habitable planet.
Biden FTW! Bye Don Foreva! (FTW = For the Win, not the expletive you are thinking of btw) Photo Credit*
We have only 10 years to decisively act on climate.
2030 is by when we need to slash our global emissions by half if we want to have a reasonable chance at averting the worst of climate crisis. This target comes from the latest IPCC report that predicts this is what we need to do to have a good chance of limiting warming to well below 1.5°C by the end of this century. Two things to consider here are that 1. IPCC is pretty conservative in its estimates and warnings because they want to be very sure of their predictions, meaning this is the absolute ideal and best case scenario and our reality may be worse than predicted and 2. slashing emissions by half by 2030 is a pretty daunting and super ambitious target already even with the best of intentions and cooperation.
Another 4 four years of climate change-denying Trump at the helm reduces our chance at staving off the worst of climate impacts significantly because warming and climate impacts are not linearly correlated. As warming increases, the risk of hitting tipping points that throw the climate system disproportionately out of balance increases by a lot more.
Trump either denies climate change or constantly undermines it
For a crisis that absolutely demands global cooperation, the head of a powerful, major economy— one that is responsible for both a significant portion of the warming today [read this] and the delay in acting on climate decisively[read this too]— denying climate change is a dangerous obstacle for achieving an equitable, zero carbon future we dream of.
The science has been clear for decades now and is getting more and more clear on attributing human-caused emissions for the drastic shifts in climate system that we’re observing today. And yet, Trump has said the most atrocious things about climate change throughout his tenure and fuelled climate denialism, continuing the attack spearheaded by the fossil fuel industry lobby that drove climate disinformation and blocked climate action for decades[*]. Now that the Paris Agreement has been ratified signalling a global consensus on the reality of human-caused climate change, there’s no time for this drivel, even more so in 2020 when climate change has been relentless in making its presence felt.
What does Trump actually believe on climate change? Source: BBC.
Trump is filling important government positions with climate deniers or delayers
It wouldn’t have mattered what Trump (or any other president of this country) thinks about climate change if the US hadn’t been such a powerful country and a major contributor of emissions and warming. As per the latest Emissions Gap report, we need to reduce global emissions at the rate of 7% per year all the way till 2030 and the US alone is responsible for 15% of all global emissions in a year as of 2020[*]. Even if we forget the historic responsibility of the US for a minute, without it reducing its fair share of emissions, it would be that much harder and even more unfair for the rest of the world to shoulder this burden to keep the planet habitable by sacrificing their own development goals and opportunities.
Trump, during his presidency, has appointed climate deniers/delayers to important positions like a supreme court justice paving way for a clear conservative majority in the highest court about to hear crucial climate litigations and lawsuits[*] and top manager in the federal agency NOAA that is most involved in assessing global warming’s threat[*] as recently as the last few days before the election. Trump Administration is also reversing nearly 100 environmental rules weakening climate policy significantly, as per this New York Times report.
“the Environmental Protection Agency, which has weakened Obama-era limits on planet-warming carbon dioxide emissions from power plants and from cars and trucks; removed protections from more than half the nation's wetlands; and withdrawn the legal justification for restricting mercury emissions from power plants.”
None of which is good for the planet because these actions make enforcing stronger climate policy and transitioning US to a zero carbon future extremely challenging.
Trump has pulled out of Paris Agreement by making egregious claims!
The US’s withdrawal from Paris Agreement kicks in right a day after elections. Previously in 2001 the US also exited Kyoto Protocol, which was the first global environmental treaty preceding Paris Accord to fight climate change[*]. Given the US’s outsized responsibility in creating the crisis and subsequently compensating for it, another four years of climate denying, America-first Trump presidency would be a nightmare to say the least and will severely undermine global climate action.
If you’re unsure about global emissions breakdown and responsibility to fix the crisis, read this - Understanding Global Emissions (& the inherent inequality) in Seven Charts
And someone has to pay reparations!
As part of Paris Agreement, a USD 100 billion per year climate financing for developing countries to mitigate and adapt to climate change was pledged, to take effect by 2020 and continuing on till 2025. President Obama had pledged USD 3 billion towards the Green climate Fund as a start, of which USD 1 billion was issued and USD 2 billion were owed by the time Trump was elected to office. Predictably, Trump has now refused to give that money. This is not tons of money btw. (For comparison, Jeff Bezos alone had pledged USD 10 billion towards financing climate solutions to much fan fare last year, but as expected it hasn’t seen the light of the day yet[*].)
Irrespective of the climate financing amount, it is more a matter of taking responsibility and acknowledging the disproportionate risk and disadvantage developing nations face due to climate change. And Trump has made it very clear he does care not about climate justice or equity, calling all this a scam to redistribute wealth from rich to poor nations.
Are you then saying it’s “Game Over” if Trump gets reelected?
Yes but also no.
It just makes our job that much harder. It’d be swell to have an ally in the US president during the most crucial time for climate action but it’s not the end of the world if we don’t. And more importantly, we cannot let this setback derail us from zero carbon future because billions of lives depend on us transitioning to a zero carbon future. Whether or not US rejoins the global climate action remains to be seen, but a paradigm shift is already underway as evidenced by China’s surprise announcement of a net zero target recently. Between EU, China, Japan, South Korea, UK pledging carbon neutral targets, we have much of the largest economies cement the move towards carbon neutrality by 2050.
In the event of a Biden presidency, he has pledged to rejoin Paris Agreement immediately. And climate scientists and youth activists in the US are very happy with Biden’s climate plan[*] and his willingness to work with them towards a fair climate solution.
And so, let’s see what happens on November 3rd 2020!
All eyes on the climate election then!
Essential Weekend Reading:
1. An excellent longread on the geopolitics and practicalities of decarbonisation & China’s foray into global climate politics.
China’s unilateral commitment to carbon neutrality by 2060 took the West by surprise. If President Xi Jinping’s words can be taken at face value, the country which emits more carbon dioxide than the United States, Europe, and Japan put together is embarking on a radical program of decarbonization. Climate change politics at a global level thus shift into a new gear. — Welcome to the Final Battle for the Climate on Foreign Policy
2. Essential reading in conjunction with the previous article. China is clearly trying to fill the gap that US has created when it comes to global leadership on climate governance!
A “factsheet” published by China’s ministry of foreign affairs on Monday described the US as being “widely viewed as a consensus-breaker and a troublemaker”. It accused Washington of having “seriously undermined global climate governance and cooperation” for failing to ratify the Kyoto Protocol and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement – two global treaties designed to cut emissions. — China hits out at US climate record, in pointed message ahead of election
3. This one is not essential [:)] but I spoke to Vogue on Climate Grief for an article on the overwhelming sense of despair at the state of our planet and how can we channel that grief into positive action, with great insights from @reneelertzman, @JacquelynGill and others.
Neelima Vallangi, an independent journalist and storyteller based in Bengaluru, India, says people of colour and those in the global south not only bear the brunt of the climate crisis, but also the grief, rage, and anxiety that comes with it. India, for example, is one of the most-affected countries by climate disasters and is home to 22 of the world’s 30 most-polluted cities. “I often feel as if we never had a chance to develop. It was first colonialism and now climate change,” she says. — “Climate Grief” Explained, And How To Cope With It on Vogue
Other updates:
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awesome read--- thanks for sharing!